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golf projections

resolve golf

We project every LPGA event and every PGA Tour major before the first tee shot. Then we publish how each one finished.

the ways in
how the calls have held up
what has changed
release notes

release notes

v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.

methodology writeups

PGA uses 14+ custom metrics on top of strokes-gained, joined with weather and pin difficulty at the round level. LPGA uses L04 forward (player-mean) + L06 tournament Monte Carlo (10k sims, RMSE 2.85 strokes per round). Both face-validity tested — if a "clutch putter" metric ranked someone nobody would call clutch, it got cut.

model retrospectives

what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.