golf projections

resolve golf

tournament projections for both tours — PGA (v4 GBM model) and LPGA (L04 forward + L06 MC). per-round strokes-gained, finishing distribution, cut probabilities. pick your tour below.

tours

pga tour — projections lpga tour — projections

release notes

2026-06-27

release notes

v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.

2026-06-27

methodology writeups

PGA uses 14+ custom metrics on top of strokes-gained, joined with weather and pin difficulty at the round level. LPGA uses L04 forward (player-mean) + L06 tournament Monte Carlo (10k sims, RMSE 2.85 strokes per round). Both face-validity tested — if a "clutch putter" metric ranked someone nobody would call clutch, it got cut.

soon

model retrospectives

what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.

how the projections have held up

85%

of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly

29 of 34 · projections locked 4 days before kickoff · outperformed market consensus

RPS 0.171

World Cup ranked-probability score

tighter than the bookmaker-calibrated international band (0.20–0.22)

54%

hit rate on 165 NBA playoff calls

beat the closing market